By conversion, I mean the percentage of the registrants who voted in the 2020 general election.
This uses the 2020-12-12 ncvoter and ncvhis files.
The following table is a quick summary of the 2020-12-12 ncvoter file status of registrants 18 years of age or younger in two categories. First, the column “Early” counts those whose registration date was 2019-12-09 or 2020-01-03, that is, the early registrants. Second, the column “Regular” counts those whose registration was during 2019 but not 2019-12-09. In both cases, the loss of registrants, that is, assignment to a non-Active status, was about 4 percent.
A = Active
D = Denied
I = Inactive (but not yet removed)
R = Removed
S = Armed Services
Overall, irrespective of age, the persons who registered in 2019 amounted to 494,693. This includes the early registrants of 2020-01-03. Of these, 339,839, or 69 percent voted in the general election. This is column “All” in the following plot.
Comparing the statewide ncvoter early registrations to the ncvhis files for 2020-12-12 shows that 37,941, or about 68 percent of early registrants, voted. This is column “Early 18”.
Persons 18 years of age who registered in 2019 but did not participate in early registration, that is, did not register on 2019-12-09, amounted to 55,218. Of these, 33,450 , or 61 percent voted in the general election. This is column “Regular 18”.
As a final comparison, the persons of all ages who registered in 2019, but with all 18-year olds removed, amounted to 385,448. Of these, 267,917 , or 70 percent voted in the general election. This is column “Except 18”.
It is evident that the 18-year olds who did not participate in early registration converted (voted) at a lower rate than did their early register peers, that is, 61 compared to 68 percent. This can be somewhat loosely interpreted as early registration adding 4,491 young voters.
This report was run on 2020-12-18.