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Exploring the 2020-10-31 ncvhis Data for Even Year General Elections

The ncvoter file and the ncvhis file work together to give a comprehensive picture of North Carolina registration and voting participation over a period of about a decade prior to the versions, that is, the date stamps, of the files. Each person in the two files is identified by a unique “ncid” alphanumeric. North Carolina has many elections, some of which are jurisdiction-specific. I use the ncvhis records for only the even year general elections beginning in 2010 and discard the others. The following table provides a summary of the ncvoter and ncvhis files within the context of my analysis. They are both dated 2020-10-31. Nvhis is a count of the persons (the ncid data item) who appear in the ncvhis file and who voted in each general election. Nvoter counts the matches of the ncvhis persons with what is in the ncvoter file. Dif is the difference between those two counts. Dif is quite small compared to either Nvhis or Nvoter. I expect there is a difference because people are expunged from the ncvoter file more frequently than from the ncvhis file, but I have not verified this. Nactive is the count of persons in the ncvoter file who have an Active status and are registered as Democrat, Republican, or Unassigned (Independent), and who voted in each general election. DifActive is the difference between Nvhis and Nactive. It is larger than Dif because of the migration of some voters into an Inactive status or who have been removed from ncvoter. Persons_Voting is the cumulative number of individuals voting, starting from the present (the bottom date).

The lessons that I take away from these talleys is that there are very few orphaned ncvhis records, even spread out over a decade. The Dif total, 74,204, being so small leads me to ignore these orphaned ncvhis records in my analyses. On the other hand, the DifActive are about ten percent of the ncvhis records. This suggests that I should not use only the Active voter records for my analyses, but that I should include the persons who, over the time span of the general elections, have become Inactive.

The ncvhis Data Across Time
election_date
2010-11-02
2012-11-06
2014-11-04
2016-11-08
2018-11-06
2020-11-03
Nvhis
2,699,187
4,540,940
2,938,998
4,768,188
3,754,128
3
Nvoter
2,683,467
4,518,415
2,926,847
4,753,855
3,744,653
3
Dif
15,720
22,525
12,151
14,333
9,475
0
Nactive
2,123,002
3,591,408
2,562,503
4,328,569
3,598,546
3
DifActive
560,465
927,007
364,344
425,286
146,107
0
Persons_Voting
6,238,330
6,086,998
5,403,148
5,190,721
3,754,064
3
Total 18,701,444 18,627,240 74,204 16,204,031 2,423,209


This report was run on 2020-10-31.